I don't know if it's apocryphal or not, but one of my favorite first-principles stories is the jet engine.
At some point in the 1930s a paper was written arguing from first principles that a jet engine could not work to propel a plane. Axial flow compressors were to inefficient and radial-flow compressors generated too much drag.
What the author didn't know is that another already written paper had come up with significant improvements to axial-flow compressors by using airfoil-shaped blades, which combined with improved metallurgy was more than sufficient for a working turbojet.
So it was a perfectly sound argument for why something was impossible, but it was still wrong because the assumptions were changing.
The tech industry looks like this all the time; in many of pg's essays he mentions that a lot of successful ideas look like toys, and part of the reason for that is this core concept; as the underlying assumptions change something can morph from a toy to big business overnight.
At some point in the 1930s a paper was written arguing from first principles that a jet engine could not work to propel a plane. Axial flow compressors were to inefficient and radial-flow compressors generated too much drag.
What the author didn't know is that another already written paper had come up with significant improvements to axial-flow compressors by using airfoil-shaped blades, which combined with improved metallurgy was more than sufficient for a working turbojet.
So it was a perfectly sound argument for why something was impossible, but it was still wrong because the assumptions were changing.
The tech industry looks like this all the time; in many of pg's essays he mentions that a lot of successful ideas look like toys, and part of the reason for that is this core concept; as the underlying assumptions change something can morph from a toy to big business overnight.