Demand wouldn't decrease because of more developers being on the market. Supply would increase. Just because any one developer might be individually in less demand doesn't mean that demand for developers has decreased. Yes, this would still depress salaries for developers.
Having said that, there is no fixed amount demand for developers. If development resources are a bottleneck for development projects moving forward, there being more developers may actually increase demand. This comes about as projects that otherwise wouldn't be started do get started and may, themselves, not be able to be fully staffed even with the new blood. I don't know that this would actually happen... but then again I suspect the Japanese don't really know what will happen either.
You can't just look at the two values of current demand and current supply and extrapolate that into a vision of the future... there are many, many more variables than that.
Interesting. The situation when robots not only take the people jobs but because of the robots new jobs get created, comes to mind. Isn't it similar to that?
Yet, I think that robots don't create as many jobs as they take.
There wouldn't be less demand, there would be a higher supply.
In any case IoT is doing it's best to massively increase demand for programmers. Once everything is sufficiently IoTified programming will be as common a tool as a hammer.
In what sense in this a great news? Yes, it's a progress, so what? After all, you - programmers - earn money for your jobs and pretty soon you might not have one. Because of these kinds of great news -- "Whayyy, this is really interesting, AI, maching learning. Aaaaa!".
"I'll get fired, won't have money for living and AI will take my place, but the world will be better! Yes! Progress!"
Who will benefit from this? Surely not you. Why are you so ecstatic then?
I thought long and hard about the future when 95% of the jobs as they exist today will be taken by robots. Initially, it would seem that people would be reduced to beggars, as they depend on BHI or other forms of welfare to subsist. But then it struck me:
You don't need jobs as long as you have land, renewable energy sources and robots (and 3d printers). You can live in a community that is self sufficient. You will be employed by your land, as it always was up until 100 years ago. We will also have robots, maybe not the latest generation, but we don't need to go back to the 19th century agriculture.
It is you who will benefit in the end, if you can use AI to improve your life. As long as AI doesn't remain locked in the hands of one entity and we all share into the benefits, it will work out ok. In the short run we need some sort of social welfare though, and to invest in renewables and self-sufficiency technologies.
How much self-sufficient a country, city, village or small farm could be? There is a lot of potential to migrate back to small community agrarian economy with robotics and 3d printing and solar panels.
<speculation>People could trade using a different currency than that used for robotic produced goods. This currency will have to enforce differentiation of economic agents (diversity) and integration (low barriers of entry). A currency that will automatically disable the accumulation of power in a few hands and work for humans. We have to build an economy that functions more like the brain. In the brain there is no master neuron. They all share in the activity. So should be an enlightened human society.</speculation>
yes, could be. but not necessarily will be and not necessarily that you and other people of the middle or low class will be given a luxury to have a robot and not to work.
maybe low and middle class will have to serve people from high class who will have robots.
The jobs can can be lost - those will be lost and should be lost. Prolonging the process doesn't help anyone as well. The transition can be hard and painful, though, so speeding it up is all the better.
My comment isn't about gender. It's about the fact that the same lawyer can prove that you, whether you be a man or woman, victim or criminal, guilty and non-guilty at the same time. Depending on whose side the lawyer is.