I think the problem boils down to how to take meaningful action without confidence.
E.g., if I admit that, not only am I not confident, but I see the world as so complex that I can't be possibly confident about it, how can I decide what to do?
If my view of the world is correct than my actions would at best have unpredictable results and at worst would be reckless. So the best course of action would be not to do anything.
However, would strip me of all agency and any ability to do anything about things in the world I see as problematic.
> if I admit that, not only am I not confident, but I see the world as so complex that I can't be possibly confident about it, how can I decide what to do?
You get input from others with knowledge, consider things as much as you can, and recommend a course of action / make a decision based on what you know, understanding that it might not end up being the right one.
I've seen it happen often in small businesses and startups I've worked with, and I've seen people make what in hindsight were the wrong decision. But that's just the way things are for everyone, really.
You can't see the future but have to make a decision anyway at some point.
>E.g., if I admit that, not only am I not confident, but I see the world as so complex that I can't be possibly confident about it, how can I decide what to do?
You need to learn to face uncertainty. You know some of your data is incorrect, and that you sometimes make mistakes processing that data. But if you are calibrated correctly, you should be more sure of some things (that the sun will rise tomorrow) than others (that I'll get that job I just interviewed for) - I mean, I think both of those things are true, but one I'm very certain of the first, the other? I'd say it has a 60% chance of happening.
It's totally reasonable to make a bet that will cause me to lose something important if the sun doesn't come up tomorrow. It's much less reasonable to make a bet that will cause me to lose something important if I don't get that job.
>If my view of the world is correct than my actions would at best have unpredictable results and at worst would be reckless. So the best course of action would be not to do anything.
If you literally make no conscious effort to do anything? It's likely you will die of dehydration in the next few days.
Doing nothing is very likely to be much worse than randomly picking from actions deemed culturally reasonable... and you can probably do a lot better than random through weighing what uncertain information you have.
I mean, complexity is hard, but it's ultimately going to get you better decisions than a system where you are absolutely certain of things.
E.g., if I admit that, not only am I not confident, but I see the world as so complex that I can't be possibly confident about it, how can I decide what to do?
If my view of the world is correct than my actions would at best have unpredictable results and at worst would be reckless. So the best course of action would be not to do anything.
However, would strip me of all agency and any ability to do anything about things in the world I see as problematic.