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Why does it have to be causal? A variable can be a real predictor of another without any of them causing the other one (for instance, they may have a common cause). That doesn't mean the predictor is of any less value.

I would say that results on certain cognitive ability tests (i.e. "IQ tests") being at least a moderately good predictor for future performance in certain human activities is a rather well proven fact. For instance, the correlation between an IQ score and future job performance on a job with complex requirements is about 0.5.

Of course, that does not mean the relationship is 1-to-1 and that it is a perfect predictor (which it obviously isn't).



Finding bear poop on the trail is a predictor of bear activity, not a cause of the bear.


I vehemently agree, as a careful reading of my previous comment tells.




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