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Literally every epidemic model being used to justify lockdowns depends on IFR as a critical parameter, and the best we can do right now is guess at the value.

If the IFR is 1/10th (quite possible!) or 1/50th (less likely, but still possible) of the current estimate, it completely changes the calculus for locking things down. A fifty fold under-estimate of infections would mean that approximately half of NYC has already been infected, for example, and that we're not far from herd immunity.

We just don't know.



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