> Finding product-market fit is not something you can engineer with perfect foresight.
I think the larger problem is that is marketing is near ignored and not just by engineers either. Not many people want to talk to potential customers or users to see if there's product market fit, so they don't talk and listen to anyone outside of the friends and their team which is a huge mistake when they just go ahead and build. This is why I feel that Product Hunt's various hack fest events are more valuable than YC's virtual startup school. Product Hunt's hackfests are ingenious marketing classes in disguise. Product Hunt really forces you in a methodical way to market your product before it's built. What most people don't realize is that it's so important to build an audience before you finish building your product. Ryan Hoover and Co are right: "Build it and they will come" in most cases is a myth.
talking to potential customers and users about product market fit
is not a given it will work
Making a product based on your experience of a market - 25% chance it works out (of which 5% chance it will become a big company)
To that, even after talking to customers
you are only taking it to 30% chance it works out, and of which 7% chance it will become a big company
*
your hypothesis is based on data points
hopefully things like actual experience in the market
market research
seeing what sells
seeing what doesn't sell
*
Customers and users are just as likely to give you bad data (of what they THINK they will buy) or impractical data (something that benefits them and doesn't benefit you)
It only adds a few percentage points to your likelihood of success
on the other hand - seeing what customers actually BUY and SPEND ON, that has a lot of value
However, even that is a piece of the puzzle, and not the solution
With a startup nothing is a given. However talking to your potential customers increases the chances of success because it increases the chances of product market fit. It puts your hypothesis to the test.
Yes, those few percentage points count. Every little bit counts when the chance for failure is high.
I’m not really sure why you’re criticizing my argument.
I think the larger problem is that is marketing is near ignored and not just by engineers either. Not many people want to talk to potential customers or users to see if there's product market fit, so they don't talk and listen to anyone outside of the friends and their team which is a huge mistake when they just go ahead and build. This is why I feel that Product Hunt's various hack fest events are more valuable than YC's virtual startup school. Product Hunt's hackfests are ingenious marketing classes in disguise. Product Hunt really forces you in a methodical way to market your product before it's built. What most people don't realize is that it's so important to build an audience before you finish building your product. Ryan Hoover and Co are right: "Build it and they will come" in most cases is a myth.