> everyone seems to be sitting in cash?

What is this based on? Every indicator suggests we’re still in a risk-on mode as an economy. It’s why we have inflation.

Don’t know which indicators you’re looking at, but the bond market disagrees.

Yield curve inverted and interest rates have begun to go up. Risk on?

> curve inverted and interest rates have begun to go up. Risk on?

Yes, we’re still seeing billions of dollars being deployed into start-ups [1], crypto and the like. We are less risk on than we were. But within America, there is no flight to safety. (Internationally, it’s more complicated.)

[1] https://fortune.com/2022/04/08/venture-capitals-2022-slowdow...

You should see the volume of the last 24 hours. No one is sitting on cash unless they are hobbyists.

That’s ironic.

If you’d sold your S&P500 on Monday and bought back on Friday, you’d have gained 2.7 shares per 100 sold.

If you’d sold your S&P500 a month prior and bought back on Friday, you’d have gained a 8 shares per 100 sold.

If you’d sold your S&P500 six months prior and bought back on Friday, you’d have gained 14 shares per 100 sold.

You just described a hobbyist. Institutions don’t sit on cash for that long, nor do they buy S&P in any significance.

[0] Berkshire Hathaway - https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK

Interesting that you cite BRK, who famously have been sitting on ~150bn in cash recently. Professional investors absolutely sit on cash all the time.

Yeah, they did, and within a month or two it was reinvested elsewhere. Whether it was pulling out of American Airlines in favor of more shares of Chevron, or doubling down on tech stocks. BRK doesn’t just sit on 150bn in cash for longer than they have to. Not saying they don’t sit on cash but they definitely don’t sit on it for a year or more.

Show me a hedge fund that sat on more than 1% of their holdings for more than a year. I’ll wait.

Yes — I called it ironic because a hobbyist sitting on cash out performed the market over the past six months.

Institutions “making moves” aren’t magic — and often fail to beat indexes, which in turn failed to beat cash over the past six months.

Sometimes the hobbyist mindset wins.

>sometimes the hobbyist mindset wins.

In this case, you’re absolutely right. Had they just sat on it they wouldn’t have the losses they do today, furthering the panic selling.