> Except intermittent sources also need storage. They also need long distance transmission lines to bring power from remote areas of generation to places of demand
You are correct. They also need storage like nuclear for non-dispatchable loads in areas without good hydro or CSP resource.
For the remainder your battery production figures are off by at least a factor of two. China delivered 280GWh in H1 2022 at the peak of a market crunch in an industry that is growing at 50% YoY. There's no compelling reason to think the 5TWh/yr of factories under construction won't be completed on time as the renewable industry has been consistently over-delivering for a decade.
Your scaling for nuclear is new capacity. Which is around 5GW/yr right now. It has to increase tenfold to match the last year of new renewable generation, or fifteenfold to match the new capacity weighted installation.
> (whereas you can just place nuclear plants next to areas of demand).
Incorrect. Seismic activity, ground, water, temperature, security and many other concerns limit siting severely.
> If the price of steel and ammonia goes up because they can't run their plants as usual, then that cost is ultimately borne by consumers. You can't just use load shifting as part of the plan and ignore the costs of load shifting. "Virtual seasonal storage" amounts to "tell industries to shut off during winter". And no, heat production is not non-dispatchable unless you're okay with people freezing to death.
Hydrogen or ammonia continue to exist after you make them. Simply overprovision your $300/kW electrolyser slightly and use chemical energy as your buffer. This has the added advantage of being an emergency or low CF backup at minimal extra cost.
> They also need storage like nuclear for non-dispatchable loads in areas without good hydro or CSP resource.
Really? Show me all the storage facilities France built when they have >80% of their electricity coming from nuclear power? It'll be challenging for you to do so, since no such storage facilities were built. Nuclear power can be modulated. Plants try not to do this since they want to run at 100% as much as they can to make money, but there is no storage requirement for nuclear power.
> Incorrect. Seismic activity, ground, water, temperature, security and many other concerns limit siting severely.
All of which has been solved already. Seismically active areas have nuclear plants both in the US and around the world. Water is a non-issue since places with large energy use tend to be cities, which are populated by humans which also need water. Nuclear plants can also use wastewater or seawater (like the Palo Verde plant), it doesn't have to be potable water.
> Hydrogen or ammonia continue to exist after you make them. Simply overprovision your $300/kW electrolyser slightly and use chemical energy as your buffer. This has the added advantage of being an emergency or low CF backup at minimal extra cost.
Then show me the price history of commercial ammonia grid storage operators. Well, first you'll have to wait for such a facility to come online because none are operational. Proponents of intermittent sources keep hoping that some silver bullet will make storage nearly-free, since it's the only way to make wind and solar viable as primary sources of energy. But thus far, no silver bullet has come and it's unclear if it ever will.
Unlike nuclear which has historical precedence of being built at scale and cheaply. If we had kept building nuclear plant at the same rate as we did in the 60s and 70s we'd have a completely decarbonized grid by now. We have no such historical precedence building grid storage.
> Really? Show me all the storage facilities France built when they have >80% of their electricity coming from nuclear power?
It's called Europe. To make their nuclear less unaffordable they use other countries as seasonal and diurnal storage.
> Unlike nuclear which has historical precedence of being built at scale and cheaply
Where? Show a single privately run Gen III or later commercial plant funded without government enforced monopoly, free loans, or direct funding that comes in at an affordable price.
> Unlike nuclear which has historical precedence of being built at scale and cheaply. If we had kept building nuclear plant at the same rate as we did in the 60s and 70s we'd have a completely decarbonized grid by now. We have no such historical precedence building grid storage.
No, there'd be no viable Uranium in the ground after about 1980.
You are correct. They also need storage like nuclear for non-dispatchable loads in areas without good hydro or CSP resource.
For the remainder your battery production figures are off by at least a factor of two. China delivered 280GWh in H1 2022 at the peak of a market crunch in an industry that is growing at 50% YoY. There's no compelling reason to think the 5TWh/yr of factories under construction won't be completed on time as the renewable industry has been consistently over-delivering for a decade.
Your scaling for nuclear is new capacity. Which is around 5GW/yr right now. It has to increase tenfold to match the last year of new renewable generation, or fifteenfold to match the new capacity weighted installation.
> (whereas you can just place nuclear plants next to areas of demand).
Incorrect. Seismic activity, ground, water, temperature, security and many other concerns limit siting severely.
> If the price of steel and ammonia goes up because they can't run their plants as usual, then that cost is ultimately borne by consumers. You can't just use load shifting as part of the plan and ignore the costs of load shifting. "Virtual seasonal storage" amounts to "tell industries to shut off during winter". And no, heat production is not non-dispatchable unless you're okay with people freezing to death.
Hydrogen or ammonia continue to exist after you make them. Simply overprovision your $300/kW electrolyser slightly and use chemical energy as your buffer. This has the added advantage of being an emergency or low CF backup at minimal extra cost.