The people will still use the Desktop like before. The problem is, for messaging and status updates is mobile totally sufficient.
They talk much about Pictures, but most of the people i know don't post any. The big success of Facebook is the E-Mail IM replacement for young people, but it is very difficult to advertise on that. Who made ever money on IM and Mail? ICQ and AIM had impressive numbers, but were never a big success financially.
People in your social network may not post pictures, but for all the Facebook users I know, pictures is very critical part of their experience. [I personally don't use Facebook.] Facebook has actually solved the problem of sharing pictures with your loved ones for non technical people, IMHO.
Funny i don't use it myself, i get an email when someone sends me a message.
I know also people who share them, but max every week and probably just 5 friend really look at them. When you look at pictures, how can you concentrate on ads? They are not even in the middle like Youtube's. Pictures on mobile reduces the space for ads even further and you will always be uglier than every competitor.
I do not have any opinion about ads, I was only replying to your comment that no one shares pictures. Since Facebook, all the non technical folks I know have stopped using Flickr/Google Albums/Snapfish/Photobucket/<<Name Your favorite photo sharing Service>>. They also don't send pictures by email. They simply upload it to Facebook.
Ad serving (at least the monetizing part) isn't always about how you can make a user concentrate on an ad. How many free iOS games out there serve up unobtrusive ads that you sometimes even stop noticing?
>They talk much about Pictures, but most of the people i know don't post any.
I'm not really sure that applies universally. The majority of my stream post pics from mobile (either directly, thru instagram, etc.).
>The big success of Facebook is the E-Mail IM replacement for young people...
In mobile? I don't see that happening either, as most too used to texting/iMessage/BBM
Where I do see a lot of usage is in-stream. If they can figure out how to serve up ads within the timeline without being too intrusive then that would be the way to do it in mobile. Tho that new timeline crashes more often than it works in mobile (at least in the iOS version)
Well i am certainly not an expert, but none of your examples get's people to use Facebook on the desktop.
What is the benefit of looking at someones timeline and how often will you do it? Facebook needs incredible engagement (what it has right now on the desktop) and space do display ads. Youtube has the content, but what brings people back to FB? Don't forget all these social Startups will hurt Facebook on engagement.
Sorry, I understood your op as you making the point that people will still use Facebook on the desktop. I was providing the counterpoint that it is looking more and more like mobile is the future.
Also, I believe stats will show that engagement is rising rapidly on mobile, and that's what keep people logged on FB.
And I'm not sure that people who are currently not using computers at all (in emerging markets) will ever use PCs. If you've never used a PC a smartphone might seem like all you'll ever need.
They talk much about Pictures, but most of the people i know don't post any. The big success of Facebook is the E-Mail IM replacement for young people, but it is very difficult to advertise on that. Who made ever money on IM and Mail? ICQ and AIM had impressive numbers, but were never a big success financially.