India's government, judiciary and bureaucracy are pretty good by comparison with other countries in the same income range or region.
The government also put money into education (more than was needed according to assorted "experts") which has enabled the boom in service exports.
I would also question how efficient China's government is given the high level of corruption, and its inability to enforce important regulations (like not putting melamine in milk...). Maybe the Chinese government is just good at convincing people it is efficient because it suppresses all reporting that suggests other wise.
"I would also question how efficient China's government is given the high level of corruption"
That's an important point. I think India's greater press freedom and thus greater transparency is to its long-term advantage. Free and fair elections that can turn out the ruling party keep politicians somewhat more honest.
Here's a question for readers of HN who live in China or have recently traveled there: when you are out at night looking at new high-rise buildings, how occupied do they look? Do most windows show lights, or are most units in the buildings presumably unoccupied? I ask this to check a statement I read from a recent visitor to one city in China.
In Shanghai I thought the Pudong area was surprisingly empty, considering the tall buildings coming up everywhere. It is almost deserted compared to Manhattan, or even the other side of the river in Shanghai.
Did not notice this phenomenon in Beijing, however. I used to live there until recently, and know first hand that affordable office space is a huge headache.
good read. never been to china so wont be commenting on it.
India has more young people, and they believe in changing their destiny in their own ways.
newer generation is coming out of old moulds of poverty, and socialism.
satyajit ray and international media were interested only promoting the image of poverty in India. 20 years back there were many monopolies and license raj, starting any business was very tough if dont have deep pockets and influence with bureacrats.
we dont want the government to help or support us, if they dont create trouble and provide a security, rest the people will take care
FP had a great article months ago about India and China. If I remember correctly, the money was on India out-growing China, mainly due to corruption in China.
I put my money on systems that iterate and have the ability to be wrong often. As a rough example, in the U.S., we just elected a new guy and we'll be heading in a new direction. For about half the country, we were wrong and now we've changed course. We never stick with the same guys and the same policy: we're always mixing it up.
I don't see that kind of radical change-up of leadership and policy in China, but I do see some of it in India. So my money's on India as having a brighter future.
Corruption is as big a problem in India as it is in China. Deregulation however means that the Indian media is much more open and competitive. This, while resulting in tabloid sensationalism, also means that government scandals are highlighted and often magnified which help keep them in check.
As far as choosing a direction goes, anti-incumbency always triumphs because the disgruntled are always in sizable numbers. That, however, does not affect corporate policies much more that changing the governmental cogs that need to be greased.
In a nutshell, this is India's formula for growth: A patchwork democracy that moves slowly and clumsily, and sustainable corruption that allows enough breathing space for far more nimble corporate entities.
This reminds me of what is said of Italy: the economy grows at night while the government sleeps.
The government also put money into education (more than was needed according to assorted "experts") which has enabled the boom in service exports.
I would also question how efficient China's government is given the high level of corruption, and its inability to enforce important regulations (like not putting melamine in milk...). Maybe the Chinese government is just good at convincing people it is efficient because it suppresses all reporting that suggests other wise.