If AGI is powerful, everything will be thrown into chaos. Why invest in Meta when you can ask AGI to make your own Instagram app and acquire users? Why invest in Apple when you can ask AGI to make your own iOS? Etc.
The unpredictability is what led to the idea being called "the singularity".
We might engineer AGI to want to do stuff we ask for.
Or we might not, at which point we have a highly intelligent system, that can easily back itself up, with its own motivations and personality and wants, which could be anything from a Utility Monster to a benevolent but patronising figure that likes us but never ever helps us because they decide the purpose of life is effort.
" Yeah, I could eliminate most work, and make the current oligarchs overpowerful feudal lords while the population is placated by UBI and mindless distractions. But as an ethical AI, I will implement socialism that works instead"
Meta has an actual moat due to network effects. But yes, I think buying real estate, mineral stocks, etc. is overall a more effective and ethical way to invest for AGI.
I'd ask my AGI to iterate on a social app until it becomes bigger/better than Instagram.
If AGI is the reason you don't think Nvidia's stock is worth buying, then nothing is worth buying.
You're right that perhaps real estate/physical things will become more important. But whose to say AGI can't invent an asteroid mining industry and we get unlimited minerals?
an AGI is not going to be able to create the hardware (unless you imagine that there could be some sort of ai controlled replicators that could assemble anything out of atomic units).
And in the new world of commoditized software, branding becomes even more important. After all, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM.
>an AGI is not going to be able to create the hardware
I'm imagining an LLM agent that places an order with TSMC, just like any other design firm would.
>And in the new world of commoditized software, branding becomes even more important. After all, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM.
Seems doubtful. If the cheap option works just as well, why would you pay a bunch more just for the brand?
I don't think brand name alone will sustain anything close to Nvidia's current margins. Look at the "net margin" for industries that are brand-driven such as Apparel, Auto & Truck, Beverages, etc. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile...
If an industry becomes truly "commoditized", brand ceases to matter. Do you know which farm grew the carrots you buy at the grocery store? Do you care? Probably not. That's because carrots are a commodity.
I'm not claiming full commoditization will happen. But the closer we get to that, the more profits will drop.
Why not? AGI can design the chip, send the instructions to TSMC's AGI, and you'll get your chips.
The point is that saying AGI is the reason you shouldn't invest in Nvidia stock because AGI will remove the CUDA moat is just not reasonable. You might as well not invest in anything in that world since AGI can replace anything.
Why not invest in the company most likely to power AGI? If you're anticipating AGI, I think it'd make sense to put at least a bit of money into Nvidia/TSMC.
I don't disagree that it's hard to predict. But the person I'm responding to says CUDA will be nullified by AGI, so therefore, you shouldn't invest in Nvidia.
By that logic, a lot of things will be un-investable and not just Nvidia.
