Because the market almost certainly can’t support two foundation model labs given the increasingly little difference across models and the massive sums of cash required to keep it all going. There is no big 2, just a race to survive and be the big 1.
It probably can't support any because there's no moat and smaller, open source models are catching up. This is like investing $1T into mainframe computers in 1980.
There's at least two markets here. Consumer ad driven and worker augmentation markets. Likely a 3rd as a backend infrastructure provider to a bunch of value add companies.
I think Google has caught up enough to certainly be a player in the consumer ad driven market.
I also don't think only one foundation model adds up. Now that the trail is blazed a dozen companies can likely make a good enough model. The question is if there's a moat to make it winner take all
Google needs to catch up on what? Devs mindshare? The latest Opus 4.8 carefully selected benchmarks made sure to pick Gemini 3.1 Pro and not Gemini 3.5 Flash: 3.5 Flash is beating Opus 4.8 on several of the benchmarks Anthropic posted but simply was ignored.
I don't think SOTA-wise Google has a lot of catch up to do.
Gemini 3.5 Flash is not good at coding in practice. Gemini 3.1 Pro too, in particular is known to be bad at tool calls. Many companies would love to have alternatives to Claude Code (as it's a significant risk to depend on one vendor), so far most of the buzz is about moving to Codex but much fewer talk about moving to Gemini. All these benchmarks are not very informative, the Chinese labs do better on these benchmarks than in practice, for example.
Yeah it's very murky, but if they're arguably profitable under some definition of profitable, then it's ridiculous to claim there's "no path to profitability"
Especially if you assume that 6 months ago they weren't very close to this version of profitable
In terms of personal assistant AI the monopolists have a massive advantage because they control the platforms and can box out competitors from deeply integrating with the OS.
Data. Google has access to unphasmable amount of real human-created data with zero expectations of privacy (wink wink Apple): videos, photos, search, navigation, mobile app usage including competition platforms, emails, etc.
Both Anthropic and OpenAI only has access to whatever they can buy or steal.
And it's becoming increasingly hard to get fresh uncontaminated data for training. No amount of money can buy that.
> Both Anthropic and OpenAI only has access to whatever they can buy or steal.
A trillion can buy you quite a lot! Like offer some company a ton of money for data, and if they say no simply buy said company. Bonus points if it's someone like Atlassian who's stock price is getting hammered largely because of you.
