I wonder what kind of future expect the late entrants FirefoxOS and Ubuntu. I wish success for both. The challenge is big. They lack the momentum and big pockets of established rivals, Apple, Google and Microsoft. But there are some interesting factors that would be in their favor.
First are the apps. As for Ubuntu, developers love Linux. That would help to get apps ported. Plus Ubuntu have the recently introduced webapps integration, that provides unity integration for selected webapps. I expect that they will improve this feature, and include more apps. Then there is the choice of QT as the UI toolkit. This is a good choice, because QT is proven and has a big community of developers.
Meanwhile FirefoxOS relies on the traditional web platform, a popular and accessible environment for developers, that is currently improving relatively fast. The web, enhanced with the mobile APIs that Mozilla is working on, is probably enough for almost all productivity apps. And with webGL, it is becoming good for decent gaming. Web development has the advantage of being portable across platforms. That lower costs. And it is relatively easier and cheaper to find developers for it. These are facts that should not be ignored.
So both Ubuntu and FirefoxOS, are offering an attractive development proposition. From a pure development standpoint, I much rather prefer both Ubuntu and FirefoxOS alternatives, than Android Java or Apple objetiveC.
There is a strategical factor: Android device manufacturers fear Google. It is the most powerful web company in the world, controls Android, and also owns Motorola. So it competes with device manufacturers. That is too much power. And who knows if it decides to become like Apple at some point. So device manufactures, should be open to examine alternatives, as a countermeasure against Google excessive power.
Both Ubuntu and Mozilla are solid software companies, that seems unthinkable to become device manufactures.
As for windows, I can imagine device manufactures waking up from nightmares, screaming at midnight. Dreaming about a mobile world dominated by Microsoft, where they would have to pay a big fee for each windows license, out of their thin margins. It is also relevant the interest of big third-parties. Big players like Facebook and Amazon, would feel more comfortable, if their apps were running on OSs not property of their rivals, Google, Apple and Microsoft. Where these could implement strategies, to undermine the former.
Linux as a gaming platform is on the rise. Steam, the Ouya, Nvidia project shield, etc. There are more incentives to consider games for Linux. Making porting to Ubuntu mobile easier and more enticing. And webGL appears poised for a brilliant future. So both FirefoxOS and Ubuntu could be good gaming platforms.
I hope that with the help of these factors, they at least can establish a sustainable presence on the market, and are able to build from there. I would be happier with a world where open OSs are present on the mobile market.
I could see Ubuntu become the main alternative to Android for manufacturers, because Canonical will make it easy to piggyback on Android drivers, so it should be very easy for manufacturers to port Ubuntu to their devices. It also gives them at least as good customization power as Android, and the hacking/ROM community are going to love it, which I think is a good way to get people excited about a device/OS online these days.
WP8 doesn't give them any of that, it's been stagnating at 2% for more than 2 years and a half, and besides perhaps helping Nokia a bit (while being a much smaller company than they used to be, so easier to be "satisfied" with it), there's nobody really benefitting from supporting it in terms of sales. So Ubuntu would be a great WP8 replacement there, and as a strong customizable alternative to Android.
As for Firefox OS, I guess it depends on how well this ChromeOS/FF OS thing will work. And if it does, it probably only works on the low-end, at least for the next 5-10 years, when data will be so cheap, that using web apps won't be a problem anymore (although you can still use "native" web apps in FF OS, just like in Ubuntu Touch, so I guess there's that, too).
But since FF OS is going to be used mostly on low-end devices, that means it could be on a lot of devices as well, so it could do well in terms of market share (or at least well enough to give a company like Mozilla good revenues). For the same reason, I don't really see FF OS and Ubuntu competing with each other, since Ubuntu will be more on devices with at least a quad core A9/A53 or dual core A15/A57.
The only way they are competing with each other is manufacturer's attention. Some of them may not be ready to take on more than 2 operating systems at once, and if they have already committed to FF OS, then it might take stronger persuasion to start supporting Ubuntu as well, to have an alternative for high-end Android devices.
Android will continue to compete with both, at the low-end and at the high-end, although I think Google needs to make Android 5.0 a little leaner to put it back into the Gingerbread-range of resources needed, if they want Android to go hard into the sub-$50 phone market.
First are the apps. As for Ubuntu, developers love Linux. That would help to get apps ported. Plus Ubuntu have the recently introduced webapps integration, that provides unity integration for selected webapps. I expect that they will improve this feature, and include more apps. Then there is the choice of QT as the UI toolkit. This is a good choice, because QT is proven and has a big community of developers.
Meanwhile FirefoxOS relies on the traditional web platform, a popular and accessible environment for developers, that is currently improving relatively fast. The web, enhanced with the mobile APIs that Mozilla is working on, is probably enough for almost all productivity apps. And with webGL, it is becoming good for decent gaming. Web development has the advantage of being portable across platforms. That lower costs. And it is relatively easier and cheaper to find developers for it. These are facts that should not be ignored.
So both Ubuntu and FirefoxOS, are offering an attractive development proposition. From a pure development standpoint, I much rather prefer both Ubuntu and FirefoxOS alternatives, than Android Java or Apple objetiveC.
There is a strategical factor: Android device manufacturers fear Google. It is the most powerful web company in the world, controls Android, and also owns Motorola. So it competes with device manufacturers. That is too much power. And who knows if it decides to become like Apple at some point. So device manufactures, should be open to examine alternatives, as a countermeasure against Google excessive power. Both Ubuntu and Mozilla are solid software companies, that seems unthinkable to become device manufactures.
As for windows, I can imagine device manufactures waking up from nightmares, screaming at midnight. Dreaming about a mobile world dominated by Microsoft, where they would have to pay a big fee for each windows license, out of their thin margins. It is also relevant the interest of big third-parties. Big players like Facebook and Amazon, would feel more comfortable, if their apps were running on OSs not property of their rivals, Google, Apple and Microsoft. Where these could implement strategies, to undermine the former.
Linux as a gaming platform is on the rise. Steam, the Ouya, Nvidia project shield, etc. There are more incentives to consider games for Linux. Making porting to Ubuntu mobile easier and more enticing. And webGL appears poised for a brilliant future. So both FirefoxOS and Ubuntu could be good gaming platforms.
I hope that with the help of these factors, they at least can establish a sustainable presence on the market, and are able to build from there. I would be happier with a world where open OSs are present on the mobile market.