I bought all of these at the above price points because I am in tech, have a strong sense of where things are going to go, and believed these companies (at the time that I bought them) nailed what the future was (and is) going to be. I obviously did so before others realized that they had, in fact, nailed it :)
I get that I could have lost out, might have gotten lucky, etc. But I would argue that you CAN figure out that a company has really figured out something new, figure it out before others, and then bet on them... and win.
Over that time was also a massive tech bubble. What did the S&P 500 do over that time? A tech fund? Actually, I have that answer. If you bought AAPL on Feb 25, 2008 (or thereabouts, it was the only time in the last 10 years it was around that price) you could have bought an S&P index fund at 1,222. Today, that would be a 50% unrealized gain -- not that great. BUT, were you rebalancing to your optimal portfolio, you would have been continuously selling as it rose. In the crash of 2008, you would have had no choice -- based on your optimal portfolio -- to buy a bunch more S&P, which you would have then tripled. Again, not near your AAPL number, but the risk profile of that investment is also much lower. Add the fact that you have focused on the tech sector because of your perceived knowledge, and that is why you have a higher return. But you are betting on the belief you have in these companies. There is an emotional component. I personally believe AAPL is laughably undervalued at 550, but there are lots of smart people out there -- smarter than I am -- that have much lower price targets and are actively shorting the stock. I have 5 stocks in my portfolio that I believed in -- thought they had something -- and really know the field well -- graduate degree and years of work experience well. Some have panned out, others haven't. Over the long term -- retirement length (>20-30 years) -- index funds and a balanced investment strategy is objectively better.
Also: If you bought AAPL at $35.72, your unrealized gain today is more like 1456% (based on a last trade price of 550.06).
Disclaimer: I am also at a business school, so maybe we are all just being sold the same snake oil. I sorta doubt it, though. Both of our schools are respected, and our professors are largely people who have spent a lot of time learning these lessons the hard way.
I bought AAPL at that price in May of 2005. I held on to it during the crash, buying more in 2008 (when it had gone down a fair amount). And you're right... my total gain (including purchases at the higher price) is 430%. My total for that initial purchase is higher :)
there are a million people just like you. some percent of them beat the market, and think they are geniuses. others think they were just unlucky, but had a great idea/strategy. all of them are missing the point.
I had the same approach, and when the bubble burst, my darling stock Priceline tanked to 50cents! I liked them, so I bought more at that price, and did well, but that is sheer luck. Many good companies around that time could not claw their way back up.
In the tech bubble, were not most of the companies that didn't survive making losses? Seems you could quite easily defend against the possibility of the company being unable to claw their way back by only buying companies that are actually viable.
Good, profitable companies tanked as well. This was 12-13 years ago, and I am unable to recollect some names. I am sure others here can chime in. Even priceline, arguably, at 50 cents was is not reflective of the soundness of the company.
I bought all of these at the above price points because I am in tech, have a strong sense of where things are going to go, and believed these companies (at the time that I bought them) nailed what the future was (and is) going to be. I obviously did so before others realized that they had, in fact, nailed it :)
I get that I could have lost out, might have gotten lucky, etc. But I would argue that you CAN figure out that a company has really figured out something new, figure it out before others, and then bet on them... and win.