> If you flip a coin a hundred times and it comes up heads 98 times, you're prob...

		dragonwriter on Dec 2, 2013 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Why I don't trade stocks and (probably) neither sh... > If you flip a coin a hundred times and it comes up heads 98 times, you're probably safe in assuming it's a biased coin. OTOH, if you flip it several billion times and it has a run of 98 heads, you can't, on that basis alone, conclude that it is a biased coin. You can't just pull the run out and treat it as if it was the whole universe of data.

I'd still put a pretty high likelihood that it's biased. A run of 98 in 10 billion flips of a fair coin is vanishingly unlikely.