An alternative view: if BTC as a major currency is worth $100,000, and BTC that isn't a major currency is worth $0, the market price will be roughly $1,000 if BTC has a 99% chance of failure (ignoring the risk premium). As in reality the odds that BTC will become a major currency are difficult to estimate, volatile, and likely to be affected by the price of BTC itself, volatile prices for BTC, which we wrongly interpret as "manias" and "panics," actually tell us very little about the efficiency or inefficiency of the market.