What disturbs me is that the training has to start before kids are really old enough to weigh the risks and returns. The net-present-value of aspiring to a pro football career is probably in the neighborhood of 10 bucks when the actual probability of success is considered. It could even be negative due to the effect of those concussions. And it's unfathomable that the concussions don't have some progressive effect starting on day one.

This is one of those cases where you have a seemingly infinitesimal probability of a seemingly infinite outcome. I think that folks just have a very hard time thinking about that kind of situation rationally.

> What disturbs me is that the training has to start before kids are really old enough to weigh the risks and returns.

Presumably the vast majority of football players in high school don't even intend to play in college, much less professionally. I don't have any data, and I know there have been some high-profile tragedies in high school football, but I would guess that injuries are much rarer in high school.

While the news-making injuries are probably more rare, I'm concerned that a constant succession of low grade concussions might have a cumulative effect that I wouldn't wish on my own kids. Not that either of them is a prospect for playing football at any level.

Instead, they're engaged in an activity with a roughly equal chance of professional success -- playing classical music. But at least I can send them to practice without wondering if it will set them back mentally, with symptoms that show up 30 to 50 years later.