If your definition of "Linux on the desktop" is "I see it everywhere I go" then your metric is well behind the early adopter curve.
If, however, your metric is to look at influencers and early adopters, it's clearly happening.
I think back to 04 when I switched to a Mac (from Windows). The idea that Macs were "happening" was inconceivable to many. Forget finding mainstream software. Forget drivers for hw support. Forget file exchange. Forget networking with anyone doing real work at your company. It was all uphill and hard. That was just 2004.
Back then it was generally either hold outs from the dark, pre OS X days or early adopters switching over (or back) to a Mac. If you had your eye on the market, I think in hindsight it's clear that there was a groundswell of interest in the platform (from passionate early adopter switchers, etc). But at the time, nothing was obvious and early adopter advocacy to just "buy a mac" fell on usually deaf ears.
We're in a not dissimilar situation today with Linux. The early adopter segment is different and much more dev oriented, but that's not a bad thing. Add to this that there are some fundamental and very important technology shifts happening that I think are going to make a positive impact on the desktop linux experience over the next several years (wayland, systemd, container/virtualization improvements, packaging and distribution rethinks).
It's happening because people like me are using Linux on the desktop every day for real work, and for many of us it's eminently preferable to any other OS out there. It's happening because we, the early adopters, are not "on the fence" about Linux: I no longer think "Linux is nice but OS X just works". It's happening because a shift to the web has made app lock in on a specific platform less of an issue. It's happening because vendors like Dell are throwing actual resources at the market. Small though it may be, this market is made up of influencers that are the thin edge of the adoption wedge.
Personally I perceive the shift to a more and more locked down platform (appstore, gatekeeper) a betrayal of the crowd that made OSX a viable desktop alternative through early adoption. I refuse to accept that I have to sign up to the app store before I can get a compiler (xcode).
So I canned OSX for a 2014 xps13 after my most recent mbp meltdown, and finally put my money where my mouth is.
The pain is obviously when I need an iDevice simulator.
Unlike MS with its IE compatibility images, Apple hasn't yet taken steps to make this available for everyone.
I actually switched to Linux years ago, and have been using it exclusively since. Even my MacBook has Ubuntu on it, and, while there are some minor annoyances, my annoyances with OS X are less minor. All my immediate family runs Ubuntu too, and they are completely fine with it (they only need a browser and a file manager, anyway).
> All my immediate family runs Ubuntu too, and they are completely fine with it (they only need a browser and a file manager, anyway).
Honestly, as far as I can tell, Windows is _way_ harder to use for the completely non-tech-savvy than Linux is.
I switched my dad over to Ubuntu (his new comp has Linux Mint) in ~2008 because I couldn't stand getting biweekly phone calls asking for help doing X or dealing with perceived problem Y on Windows. I haven't gotten a single complaint since then. Mind you, this is someone whose level of desktop-UI savviness is low enough that he hasn't quite mastered copy and paste yet.
Oh yes, the lack of viruses and general confidence this gives them that the computer won't break if they visit a random site makes Linux completely worth it.
Hell even in terms of sheer usability, the fact that it dumps everything into your taskbar/autostart makes it unusable for anyone who doesn't want to go to the trouble of deciphering 30 different hieroglyphs.
If, however, your metric is to look at influencers and early adopters, it's clearly happening.
I think back to 04 when I switched to a Mac (from Windows). The idea that Macs were "happening" was inconceivable to many. Forget finding mainstream software. Forget drivers for hw support. Forget file exchange. Forget networking with anyone doing real work at your company. It was all uphill and hard. That was just 2004.
Back then it was generally either hold outs from the dark, pre OS X days or early adopters switching over (or back) to a Mac. If you had your eye on the market, I think in hindsight it's clear that there was a groundswell of interest in the platform (from passionate early adopter switchers, etc). But at the time, nothing was obvious and early adopter advocacy to just "buy a mac" fell on usually deaf ears.
We're in a not dissimilar situation today with Linux. The early adopter segment is different and much more dev oriented, but that's not a bad thing. Add to this that there are some fundamental and very important technology shifts happening that I think are going to make a positive impact on the desktop linux experience over the next several years (wayland, systemd, container/virtualization improvements, packaging and distribution rethinks).
It's happening because people like me are using Linux on the desktop every day for real work, and for many of us it's eminently preferable to any other OS out there. It's happening because we, the early adopters, are not "on the fence" about Linux: I no longer think "Linux is nice but OS X just works". It's happening because a shift to the web has made app lock in on a specific platform less of an issue. It's happening because vendors like Dell are throwing actual resources at the market. Small though it may be, this market is made up of influencers that are the thin edge of the adoption wedge.